Robert D. Taylor’s discovery "Taylor’s Law" and the subsequent forecasts provided
on this website are results of many years of research. His research produced an
astounding conclusion that proves a predictable structure to financial markets instead
of the random behavior which is universally thought to be the accepted standard
by econometricians.
In 1996 Taylor solicited the help of other theoretical physicists and scientists
to advance his discovery. These mathematicians and engineers are considered to be
leading scientists in the field of aerospace control theory systems. Together, Taylor
and his group developed and wrote over two hundred programs in the field of time-domain
and frequency-domain control systems. The end result was Xyber9, a sophisticated
software program that successfully forecasts financial markets. Taylor’s team concentrated
their efforts on developing models for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA);
The Standard and Poors 500 index (SPY); the NASDAQ Average; U.S. Treasury Bonds;
and currencies.
In March of 2000 Taylor received from a committee of established academicians a
proffered Nobel Memorial Prize Nomination in Economics, conditional upon his prior
publication of an "enabling disclosure" pertaining to the hitherto unexploited Exogenous
Input (Gravitational Fluctuations), which is included in the essay
"The Taylor Effect". Taylor will publish his essay as an “enabling disclosure”
as part of his novel, Paradigm to be published March 6th 2006 (it will be
offered on this website under Products.)
Robert Taylor on his Forecasts
The forecasts produced here are extraordinarily precise. Scholars refer to discoveries
like this as ‘The Genuine Article’. It is exciting, it is revolutionary, and it
flies against prevailing “knowledge.” Many of you will use my forecasts to your
advantage. I have faith in human curiosity, in the inclination of everyday people
to conceptualize abstract notions. For those of you who use my forecasts, your lives
could become profoundly richer.
I chart the S&P500, (symbol SPY) for my studies, although the DOW (Dow Jones
Industrial Average), the NASDAQ and other stock market indexes follow the same predictable
patterns. Individual stocks will typically follow the same cycles as the indexes
but vary in amplitudes due to other factors, as discussed in the essay,
"The Taylor Effect", bonds will typically move opposite the stock market,
the dollar will normally move opposite the stock market while the foreign currencies
typically move with the American stock markets.
Yearly trends are easily attainable by using the relatively simple process of quantifying
astronomical values provided by NOAA algorithms. The monthly and daily trends are
another matter. I have written an Aero Space System Identification program to solve
the problem, Xyber9.
Besides identifying precise highs and lows in the market, Xyber9 filters 'noise'
or anomalies, such as a shock in the market which can cause deviations. During the
duration of the expected monthly or shorter term weekly trend, an anomaly can interfere
with the known market direction and cause unexpected results to the outcome. Such
anomalies that effect shorter term trends can be earnings reports, the PPI, the
CPI, unemployment reports, the Michigan Sentiment, Consumer Confidence, interest
rate announcements and just about anything in the news that affects human emotions.
However, during yearly trends when an anomaly shocks the market the trends are typically
long enough in duration and the amplitudes so great, that the anomaly doesn’t have
enough of an effect on the market to cause an unexpected outcome. This includes
such shocks as geo-political events, wars, recessions, assassinations or any other
traumatic social event.
My studies have included over 85 years of historical stock market data and eighteen
years of real-time experience. I was fortunate to work with world-renowned scientists
in the field of Control Theory and Systems Identification software. This experience
has brought me great insight and, more importantly, an end result; the program called
Xyber9. Xyber9 uses astronomical measurements and incorporates stock market data
to produce highly accurate monthly and weekly forecasts.
You can find detailed information about the Xyber9 program in the text of my book
Paradigm. Visit the web site paradigmbook.com
for more details.
In Paradigm I propose and prove a theory that will immediately — and forever
— change the way all of us will perceive financial markets. You will be quite surprised
and, I hope, very much impressed by a glimpse at this far-reaching discovery concerning
the effect of gravity in the analysis and forecasting of economic time series data
related to human-influenced phenomena such as those found in publicly auctioned
financial markets. My discovery is this:
The Discovery
Taylor's Law
The financial market’s expansion and contraction is quantitatively
in direct correlation to the increases and decreases in gravitational fluctuations
experienced at the human level.
Increases in market price are in direct response to decreases in gravitational
forces; and, decreases in market price are in direct response to the increases in
gravitational forces.
Theories Deemed Unacceptable
Never- the-less Undeniable
Taylor is certainly not the first to postulate a new theory deemed unacceptable
by reigning authorities, like the skeptics who inevitably try to ferret out a version
of their own truth. History is filled with characters who endured ridicule, imprisonment,
and even martyrdom because they discovered things we know today with absolute certainty
to be true. Great discoveries often take not only thinking outside the box, but
thinking from outside of the box.
For example, Leonardo da Vinci engineered a plan to divert the Arno River in his
beloved Florence from the enemy city Pisa. He later experimented with different
designs for human powered flying machines.
Galileo made momentous strides in the study of planetary motion. His passion for
the truth brought him before the Church. He endured house imprisonment for the remainder
of his life.
Benjamin Franklin was many things including a scientist who just happened to comprehend
the power which drives today’s civilization — electricity.
Alfred Nobel invented dynamite. The truth of his discovery contains deep irony,
given the fulfillment of his lifetime interests in the pursuit of explosives becoming
the Nobel Peace Prize.
Thomas Edison, one of America’s most productive inventors, obtained over 1000 patents.
Advocates of the “If it wasn’t invented here, it couldn’t possibly work” theory
were silenced.
The Wright Brothers, Wilbur and Orville, are credited with the first human flight.
Their theories proved empirically correct, even facing the winds of hard logic and
skepticism.
Guglielmo Marconi is the “Father of Radio”. No one imagined that they would witness
the wireless transmission of sound but he proved even the most enlightened thinkers
of the time wrong.
Henry Ford II turned his grandfather’s floundering automobile company into the second
largest industrial corporation the world had ever known.
William H. Gates III, instead of being prized as an industry leader, is ridiculed
for his competitive ability to dominate the computer software business. If Bill
Gates had been born Japanese, he would be a National Hero.
These discoverers and inventors have much in common. All received their fair share
of skepticism from reigning authorities of the time, while each of them discovered
the truth. It should also be pointed out that the other common theme shared by these
forward-thinking gentlemen is the absence of any advanced degrees. This is the truth!
The Truth
What is true, exactly? And what is the truth, exactly? Leading financial experts
and scientist believe the stock market to be a "random walk."
But, the truth is that the stock market is 100% predictable.
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